AMD has lost it. Not the performance crown or the market share. I’m talking about the people; they aren’t thinking about AMD any more.
My role at Icrontic is to keep my finger on the pulse of what the enthusiast community is interested in. Timely delivery of relevant news requires a war chest of tools that includes big RSS feeds, direct site visits, emails and Twitter. On any given day, you’ll find Icrontic carries news and articles that have been sourced from at least one of these channels.
Twitter is easily my favorite of the lot. The service offers a living view of the topics that scads of people are actually talking about, and I can watch that buzz in real time with Monitter. On any given day I might be watching the conversations for over 20 keywords that relate to the PC industry.
Last weekend I hovered over the Monitter dashboard and waited for a lead I could polish into an update. Instead I got a lesson in AMD’s mounting obscurity as my AMD column filled with OEM sales and typos of the word “and,” while the Intel column was overflowing with SSD, Nehalem, 32nm and Intel STS discussions
Wait for the Intel/GlobalFoundries brouhaha to clear and try it for yourself. Use Monitter to configure an AMD column and an Intel column. Watch what happens. AMD is out of sight and out of mind. That’s quite the change from 2004’s wildly collective nerdgasm for the Athlon 64.
There was a time when AMD could command premium on its processors because they were the best in the industry. The Opterons wrecked the Netburst Xeons in every metric, and the situation was no better for Intel when it came to the desktop. While Intel languished for six miserable years under the rays of their cosmically bad Pentium 4, AMD took center stage and kept it for some two years.
So just what the hell happened? Did ex-CEO Hector Ruiz milk the Athlon 64 for so long that AMD was oblivious to Intel’s driven urgency? Or did the much-delayed and ultimately disappointing Phenom force their hand? It also didn’t help that the Phenom came out swinging against Intel’s Core 2 architecture, unarguably the most robust and successful slice of silicon the firm has ever fabbed. We also know that AMD vastly overpaid for ATI which then failed to yield expected profits. And lastly, we can only surmise that AMD’s financial woes have made it incredibly hard to keep pace with a rival that can afford to burn greenbacks to keep warm in the winter.
This is not another article that foretells the demise of AMD, but hell if it doesn’t hurt to see the underdog come so far and fall so damn hard.
I suppose my recent experience with Monitter put AMD’s current situation into perspective. It’s difficult to visualize corporate struggle when expressed in losses, filings and stock prices. In contrast, it’s really quite sobering to realize that the grandpappy of x64 architecture is barely worth discussing.
AMD’s disheartening inconsequence shows little sign of abating over the next two years. Intel’s plan to release the 32nm family of Westmere processors by the end of 2009 will push AMD further into the background. In fact, AMD isn’t even competing at 32nm until 2010. By the end of 2010, Intel will already be talking about their brand new Sandy Bridge architecture. AMD’s new architecture, known as Bulldozer, isn’t expected until 2011.
The enthusiast community is a pragmatic bunch that deals in the absolutes of “first” and “best.” Intel will probably get there first. That doesn’t leave much room for buzz in the AMD camp.
But not all is downpour and brimstone. AMD has orchestrated a masterful revival of the ailing ATI brand. Not only has the Radeon HD 4000 series exploded into a potent contender, it has become incredibly popular thanks to pricing that brought reason to the entire market. Not content to rest on its laurels, AMD is already prepping a speed bump and a refresh all while NVIDIA tools around with silly name games.
AMD also has one hell of a chance to regain the word of mouth come 2011. Successfully launching a Bulldozer core that sends Sandy Bridge packing will create a groundswell of good faith. But Big Green can’t stop there, and it must take that momentum through to 22nm by year’s end. If AMD fails to die shrink on time, I could change the dates and publish this editorial all over again.
Most geeks — like me — have a soft spot for AMD in their heart. It pains us when the reality is that AMD doesn’t offer much to talk about that doesn’t begin with “well, if you’re on a budget….” These are dark, dark times for AMD. I never really noticed how bad these times were until people even stopped talking about the darkness.

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